Global Liquid Packaging Cartons Market Insights, Size, and Forecast By End Use (Food Industry, Non-Food Industry, Beverage Industry), By Application (Dairy Products, Beverages, Sauces), By Material Type (Paperboard, Plastic, Metal), By Closure Type (Screw Cap, Snap-On Cap, Tetra Pak Closure), By Region (North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, Latin America, Middle East and Africa), Key Companies, Competitive Analysis, Trends, and Projections for 2026-2035
Key Market Insights
Global Liquid Packaging Cartons Market is projected to grow from USD 22.8 Billion in 2025 to USD 35.4 Billion by 2035, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 4.7% from 2026 through 2035. This market encompasses a wide range of paperboard based packaging solutions designed for liquids such as milk, juices, and other beverages. The demand is primarily fueled by increasing consumer awareness regarding sustainable packaging and the convenience offered by cartons over traditional glass or plastic bottles. Key drivers include the rising consumption of packaged food and beverages, especially in emerging economies, alongside a growing preference for lightweight and recyclable packaging materials. Furthermore, advancements in aseptic packaging technology are extending product shelf life, making cartons a more attractive option for manufacturers and consumers alike. The market is also benefiting from stringent environmental regulations pushing industries towards eco friendly packaging solutions. However, challenges such as intense competition from alternative packaging formats like flexible pouches and PET bottles, coupled with fluctuating raw material prices, pose significant restraints to market growth.
Global Liquid Packaging Cartons Market Value (USD Billion) Analysis, 2025-2035
2025 - 2035
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A significant trend shaping the liquid packaging cartons market is the continuous innovation in material science and design, focusing on improved barrier properties and enhanced recyclability. Brands are increasingly adopting plant based polymers and certified sustainable paperboard to meet consumer demand for greener products. The shift towards smaller, single serve packaging formats for on the go consumption is also contributing to market expansion. Opportunities abound in expanding product portfolios to include non food applications such as personal care and household cleaning products, as well as in developing advanced intelligent packaging solutions that offer enhanced traceability and consumer engagement. By material type, paperboard remains the leading segment, underscoring its foundational role in the industry due to its versatility, cost effectiveness, and environmental benefits.
Asia Pacific stands out as the dominant region in the global liquid packaging cartons market, driven by its large population base, rapidly urbanizing communities, and increasing disposable incomes leading to higher consumption of packaged beverages. This region is also characterized by a burgeoning food and beverage industry and a growing focus on food safety and hygiene. Concurrently, Asia Pacific is projected to be the fastest growing region, propelled by robust economic growth, expanding retail infrastructure, and rising adoption of modern packaging solutions across various end use industries. Key players like SIG Combibloc, Tetra Pak, and Elopak are strategically focusing on geographical expansion, product innovation, and collaborations to strengthen their market positions. These companies are investing in research and development to introduce innovative packaging designs and sustainable materials, while also optimizing their supply chains to cater to the evolving demands of a global consumer base. The competitive landscape is also seeing mergers and acquisitions as companies aim to consolidate their market share and diversify their offerings.
Quick Stats
Market Size (2025):
USD 22.8 BillionProjected Market Size (2035):
USD 35.4 BillionLeading Segment:
Paperboard (72.8% Share)Dominant Region (2025):
Asia Pacific (41.8% Share)CAGR (2026-2035):
4.7%
What is Liquid Packaging Cartons?
Liquid packaging cartons are multi layered containers primarily made from paperboard, designed to safely store and transport various liquid food products. They typically feature inner polyethylene layers for liquid containment and an outer layer for printability. Some advanced versions incorporate an aluminum foil layer for oxygen barrier protection, extending shelf life. These aseptic cartons allow for ambient storage of products like milk, juice, and soup without refrigeration until opened. Their lightweight nature, stackability, and recyclability contribute to their widespread use in the beverage and food industries, offering convenience and efficiency in product distribution and consumption.
What are the Trends in Global Liquid Packaging Cartons Market
Sustainable Packaging Push
Convenience Driven Innovations
Smart Packaging Solutions
Aseptic Packaging Growth
Plant Based Milk Domination
Sustainable Packaging Push
The global liquid packaging cartons market is experiencing a significant "Sustainable Packaging Push" driven by heightened environmental consciousness among consumers and stricter governmental regulations. This trend sees manufacturers actively developing and adopting more eco friendly materials and production processes. Innovations include increased use of renewable resources like plant based plastics and certified paperboard, alongside efforts to enhance recyclability and introduce biodegradable options. Companies are also focusing on reducing their carbon footprint through lightweight designs and responsible sourcing. This push is a strategic response to evolving consumer preferences for environmentally sound products and a commitment to circular economy principles, positioning sustainability as a core competitive advantage. Ultimately, it aims to minimize environmental impact across the product lifecycle.
Convenience Driven Innovations
Consumers increasingly prioritize ease and time savings, fueling a wave of innovations in liquid packaging cartons. This trend manifests in various forms, from redesigned spouts for smoother pouring to resealable features that extend product freshness and reduce waste. Packaging engineers are focusing on intuitive opening mechanisms and single handed usability, catering to on the go lifestyles. Portability is a key driver, leading to smaller, more convenient formats for individual consumption. These advancements aim to simplify consumer interaction with products, making everyday tasks like breakfast or hydration more effortless. Ultimately, brands are leveraging these innovations to enhance user experience, differentiate offerings, and meet evolving demands for a less complicated, more efficient daily routine.
What are the Key Drivers Shaping the Global Liquid Packaging Cartons Market
Rising Demand for Sustainable and Recyclable Packaging Solutions
Growing Consumption of Dairy Products and Plant-Based Beverages
Increasing Focus on Food Safety and Extended Shelf Life
Expansion of Retail Infrastructure and E-commerce Channels
Technological Advancements in Packaging Materials and Machinery
Rising Demand for Sustainable and Recyclable Packaging Solutions
Growing consumer awareness and environmental concerns are significantly propelling the demand for sustainable and recyclable packaging within the global liquid packaging cartons market. Consumers are increasingly seeking products with reduced environmental footprints, opting for brands that prioritize eco friendly packaging. This shift in consumer preference is compelling manufacturers and retailers to adopt solutions like liquid packaging cartons, which are largely made from renewable resources and are recyclable. The circular economy principles are gaining traction, further boosting the appeal of materials that can be reused or recycled. Brands are leveraging sustainable packaging as a key differentiator, enhancing their corporate image and meeting stakeholder expectations for environmental responsibility. This trend is a primary driver for the expansion of liquid packaging cartons.
Growing Consumption of Dairy Products and Plant-Based Beverages
The increasing global consumption of dairy products like milk, yogurt, and cream, along with the rising popularity of plant based beverages such as almond, soy, and oat milk, is a significant driver for the liquid packaging cartons market. Consumers are increasingly seeking convenient, safe, and sustainable packaging solutions for these liquid food items. Cartons offer extended shelf life, protect against light and oxygen, and are perceived as environmentally friendly due to their recyclability and renewable material content. As dietary preferences shift towards both traditional dairy and innovative plant based alternatives, the demand for packaging that ensures product integrity and consumer convenience continues to grow, directly fueling the expansion of the liquid packaging carton industry.
Increasing Focus on Food Safety and Extended Shelf Life
Consumers worldwide are increasingly demanding safer food products with longer freshness. This heightened awareness about foodborne illnesses and the desire for quality preservation significantly impacts the liquid packaging market. Liquid packaging cartons, with their superior barrier properties, protect products from light, oxygen, and contaminants, thereby extending shelf life without compromising nutritional value or flavor. This capability reduces food waste and ensures products remain safe for consumption over longer periods, meeting both consumer expectations and regulatory standards. Manufacturers are adopting these cartons to enhance product integrity, maintain brand reputation, and cater to the growing consumer preference for durable and protective packaging solutions. This focus on safety and extended shelf life is a primary driver for the market's growth.
Global Liquid Packaging Cartons Market Restraints
Sustainability Regulations and Material Alternatives
Sustainability Regulations and Material Alternatives presents a significant restraint. Governments worldwide are implementing stricter environmental regulations, impacting the production, usage, and disposal of liquid packaging cartons. This includes mandates for increased recycled content, reduced plastic usage, and improved recyclability. Producers face pressure to adhere to these evolving standards, often requiring substantial investments in research and development for new sustainable materials and manufacturing processes.
Furthermore, the growing consumer preference for eco-friendly products intensifies this challenge. Consumers are increasingly scrutinizing packaging choices, favoring brands that prioritize sustainability. While offering opportunities for innovation, this trend simultaneously pushes companies to rapidly adopt alternative materials like bio-based polymers or fiber-based solutions, which may have higher costs or require significant retooling, thereby impacting profitability and market competitiveness. This constant need for adaptation and investment in new sustainable technologies limits growth potential.
Intense Competition from Flexible Packaging and Rigid Plastics
The global liquid packaging cartons market faces significant pressure from a diverse range of competing materials. Flexible packaging, encompassing pouches, stand up bags, and various film based solutions, offers adaptability in size, shape, and printing, often at a lower material cost. These solutions cater to consumer demand for convenience and portability. Simultaneously, rigid plastics, including bottles and containers made from PET, HDPE, and other polymers, continue to dominate many beverage and liquid food segments. Plastics boast established recycling infrastructures, robust performance, and consumer familiarity. Both flexible packaging and rigid plastics are actively innovating, improving their barrier properties, sustainability credentials, and design aesthetics, making them increasingly attractive alternatives for manufacturers and consumers, thereby restraining the growth of liquid packaging cartons.
Global Liquid Packaging Cartons Market Opportunities
Driving Circularity: Advanced Recyclable and Bio-Based Liquid Packaging Cartons
The global liquid packaging cartons market offers a profound opportunity in driving circularity through advanced recyclable and bio-based solutions. Heightened environmental awareness and growing consumer preference for sustainable options are compelling brands to seek packaging alternatives with reduced ecological footprints. This creates a significant need for innovations in carton design and material science.
The opportunity centers on developing and commercializing cartons manufactured from renewable bio-based feedstocks, thereby minimizing dependence on fossil resources and lowering carbon emissions. Concurrently, enhancing the inherent recyclability of these cartons and bolstering collection and reprocessing infrastructure worldwide is paramount. By focusing on both renewable sourcing and end of life solutions, businesses can meet stringent sustainability targets, elevate brand perception, and capture an expanding segment of environmentally conscious consumers. This strategic pivot ensures market relevance and growth, particularly in regions experiencing rapid expansion, by aligning packaging solutions with global environmental imperatives and economic progress.
E-commerce Optimization: Demand for Damage-Resistant and Consumer-Friendly Liquid Cartons
The global surge in e-commerce presents a significant opportunity for liquid packaging carton manufacturers. As more consumers, particularly in rapidly growing regions, purchase beverages and liquid foods online, the paramount need for robust, damage-resistant cartons intensifies. Traditional cartons, designed for shelf presence, often struggle with the rigorous multi-stage shipping typical of online retail, leading to leaks, dents, and product spoilage. This creates consumer dissatisfaction and increased return rates for retailers, hindering e-commerce adoption for liquid goods.
The opportunity lies in developing innovative carton designs that offer superior protection against impact and pressure throughout the e-commerce supply chain. This includes stronger seams, more resilient materials, and perhaps even smarter internal structures to safeguard contents effectively. Concurrently, these solutions must remain highly consumer-friendly. Features like easy pour spouts, secure resealability, and ergonomic designs are crucial for enhancing the end user experience upon delivery, establishing a competitive edge for brands.
Global Liquid Packaging Cartons Market Segmentation Analysis
Key Market Segments
By Application
- •Dairy Products
- •Beverages
- •Sauces
By Material Type
- •Paperboard
- •Plastic
- •Metal
By Closure Type
- •Screw Cap
- •Snap-On Cap
- •Tetra Pak Closure
By End Use
- •Food Industry
- •Non-Food Industry
- •Beverage Industry
Segment Share By Application
Share, By Application, 2025 (%)
- Dairy Products
- Beverages
- Sauces
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Why is Paperboard dominating the Global Liquid Packaging Cartons Market?
Paperboard holds a significant majority share due to its excellent sustainability profile, being a renewable and recyclable material. Its lightweight nature reduces transportation costs, and its barrier properties effectively protect contents like dairy and beverages. Consumers and brands increasingly prioritize environmentally friendly packaging solutions, making paperboard the preferred choice for its lower environmental footprint compared to alternatives such as plastic or metal.
How do application segments shape demand for liquid packaging cartons?
The dairy products and beverages segments are primary drivers for liquid packaging cartons, demanding robust, hygienic, and convenient packaging solutions. Cartons offer extended shelf life for milk, juices, and plant based drinks, while their stackability optimizes storage and display. The specialized requirements of these high volume sectors significantly dictate design innovations and material specifications across the entire market.
What role do closure types play in consumer preference and market diversification?
Closure types significantly impact consumer convenience and product safety. Screw caps provide resealability and prevent spoilage, making them popular for multi serve beverages. Snap on caps offer quick access, while proprietary Tetra Pak closures ensure tamper evidence and freshness. The diverse range caters to varying consumer needs and product formats, influencing brand loyalty and market differentiation within liquid packaging cartons.
What Regulatory and Policy Factors Shape the Global Liquid Packaging Cartons Market
The global liquid packaging cartons market operates within a dynamic regulatory landscape shaped by escalating environmental concerns. European Union legislation, notably the Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation proposal, drives ambitious recycling targets, mandates for recycled content, and extended producer responsibility (EPR) schemes, significantly impacting carton design and material choices. Similar EPR frameworks are emerging across North America, particularly at state levels in the US and provincially in Canada, increasing manufacturer accountability for post consumer waste.
Food contact material regulations, like those from the US FDA and EU Commission, ensure safety and material suitability for cartons. Asia Pacific regions, including Japan, South Korea, and China, are also strengthening waste management and recycling policies, promoting sustainable packaging alternatives. There is a global push to reduce plastic use, which can benefit cartons as a renewable resource, though multi material compositions often face recycling infrastructure challenges. Restrictions on chemicals like PFAS further influence material innovation and product compliance worldwide, demanding constant adaptation from carton manufacturers.
What New Technologies are Shaping Global Liquid Packaging Cartons Market?
The global liquid packaging cartons market is experiencing significant evolution driven by cutting edge innovations. A major focus is sustainability with advancements in plant based polymers and renewable sourcing leading the charge. Enhanced recyclability and biodegradability initiatives are paramount reducing environmental impact. Lightweighting technologies also contribute to a smaller carbon footprint throughout the supply chain.
Smart packaging solutions are emerging offering consumers and brands greater interaction and transparency. This includes integrated IoT features for supply chain traceability and anti counterfeiting measures protecting brand integrity. QR codes provide consumers with product information and interactive experiences. Improved barrier technologies are extending product shelf life reducing food waste particularly for aseptic applications. Enhanced material science ensures better product protection against light and oxygen.
Furthermore ergonomic designs and innovative opening mechanisms are improving user convenience. Digital printing allows for greater customization and personalized branding. These advancements collectively boost market attractiveness and performance.
Global Liquid Packaging Cartons Market Regional Analysis
Global Liquid Packaging Cartons Market
Trends, by Region
Asia-Pacific Market
Revenue Share, 2025
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Dominant Region
Asia Pacific · 41.8% share
Asia Pacific stands as the dominant region in the global liquid packaging cartons market, commanding a significant 41.8% market share. This impressive lead is primarily fueled by the region's vast population, rising disposable incomes, and evolving consumer preferences. Rapid urbanization and the growing demand for convenient, safe, and sustainably packaged food and beverage products are key drivers. Countries like China, India, and Southeast Asian nations are experiencing substantial growth due to increasing consumption of dairy products, juices, and other liquid foodstuffs. Furthermore, the robust expansion of the organized retail sector and the focus on food safety regulations further solidify Asia Pacific's commanding position, projecting continued leadership in the foreseeable future.
Fastest Growing Region
Asia Pacific · 7.9% CAGR
The Asia Pacific region is poised for significant expansion in the global liquid packaging cartons market, projected to be the fastest growing region with a robust CAGR of 7.9% during the forecast period of 2026-2035. This accelerated growth is primarily fueled by rapid urbanization and increasing disposable incomes across developing economies like India and China. A burgeoning demand for convenient and sustainable packaging solutions for beverages and dairy products is also a key driver. Furthermore, a rising consumer preference for shelf-stable food and drink options, coupled with stricter environmental regulations encouraging eco-friendly packaging, will propel the adoption of liquid packaging cartons throughout the region. The expanding organized retail sector further facilitates market penetration.
Top Countries Overview
The U.S. is a mature but significant player in the global liquid packaging cartons market, driven by convenience and sustainability trends. Major players dominate, focusing on product innovation, especially for plant-based beverages and aseptic packaging. While growth is steady, it faces competition from alternative packaging formats and relies on exports to emerging markets for further expansion.
China dominates the global liquid packaging cartons market, driven by its massive consumer base and expanding dairy, juice, and plant-based beverage sectors. Localized production, competitive pricing, and increasing focus on sustainability and convenience features are key trends. Significant investments in advanced filling and packaging technologies further solidify its leadership, catering to evolving consumer preferences for longer shelf life and eco-friendly packaging solutions.
India's liquid packaging cartons market is expanding rapidly, driven by rising disposable incomes and demand for convenience and sustainability. The market is fragmented but seeing increasing consolidation. Key growth drivers include rising consumption of dairy, juices, and alcohol, alongside the burgeoning e-commerce sector. This growth positions India as a significant contributor to the global liquid packaging cartons market.
Impact of Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors
Geopolitical shifts are influencing the liquid packaging cartons market through supply chain disruptions and regional trade agreements. Trade tensions between major economic blocs can elevate raw material costs for paperboard and other components. Environmental regulations, increasingly stringent globally, are driving demand for sustainable packaging solutions like cartons, especially in Europe and North America. Conversely, geopolitical instability in raw material rich regions can create price volatility and impede market growth. Shifting consumer preferences towards convenience and eco friendly packaging further shape regional market dynamics, with Asia Pacific experiencing rapid urbanization and increased demand.
Macroeconomic factors such as inflation directly impact manufacturing costs and consumer purchasing power. Sustained high inflation rates can dampen demand for premium carton products. Interest rate hikes affect company investment in new technologies and capacity expansion. Economic growth in developing nations fuels per capita consumption of packaged beverages, expanding market opportunities. Conversely, economic downturns can lead to reduced consumer spending and a contraction in demand. Currency fluctuations also play a significant role, affecting import costs for raw materials and the competitiveness of exports for carton manufacturers.
Recent Developments
- March 2025
Tetra Pak announced a strategic partnership with a leading food manufacturer in Southeast Asia to implement advanced aseptic carton packaging solutions. This initiative aims to expand the availability of shelf-stable dairy and plant-based beverages in the region, focusing on sustainable packaging options.
- January 2025
SIG Combibloc launched a new line of aseptic carton packs specifically designed for individualized portion sizes of premium functional beverages. These innovative packages feature enhanced barrier properties and customizable printing options to appeal to health-conscious consumers.
- November 2024
Elopak acquired a smaller, specialized packaging technology firm focused on advanced digital printing for liquid cartons. This acquisition strengthens Elopak's capabilities in offering highly customized and flexible packaging solutions to its clients, reducing lead times for new designs.
- September 2024
Stora Enso unveiled a new generation of fiber-based liquid packaging board with significantly increased renewable content, targeting the dairy and juice sectors. This product launch underscores their commitment to circular economy principles and provides brands with a more sustainable alternative to traditional carton materials.
- July 2024
DS Smith announced a major investment in its European manufacturing facilities to boost production capacity for recyclable liquid packaging cartons. This strategic initiative is in response to growing demand from the e-commerce sector for robust and environmentally friendly packaging for liquid food products.
Key Players Analysis
The Global Liquid Packaging Cartons market features prominent players like Tetra Pak and SIG Combibloc leading with advanced aseptic packaging technology and sustainable material innovations. DS Smith and Stora Enso contribute significantly through their paperboard manufacturing expertise, supporting the industry's shift towards eco friendly solutions. Strategic initiatives such as lightweighting, increased recycled content, and plant based plastics are driving market growth, fueled by consumer demand for convenient, safe, and environmentally responsible packaging. Companies like Elopak and CombiPack are expanding their global footprint through product diversification and strategic partnerships, while Reynolds Group Holdings and Nampak also play key roles in various regional markets.
List of Key Companies:
- SIG Combibloc
- Tetra Pak
- DS Smith
- Container Corporation of India
- Nampak
- Scholle IPN
- Elopak
- CombiPack
- Stora Enso
- Reynolds Group Holdings
- Mondi Group
- Proampac
- Carlsberg Group
- International Paper
- Smurfit Kappa
- Greif Inc.
Report Scope and Segmentation
| Report Component | Description |
|---|---|
| Market Size (2025) | USD 22.8 Billion |
| Forecast Value (2035) | USD 35.4 Billion |
| CAGR (2026-2035) | 4.7% |
| Base Year | 2025 |
| Historical Period | 2020-2025 |
| Forecast Period | 2026-2035 |
| Segments Covered |
|
| Regional Analysis |
|
Table of Contents:
List of Figures
List of Tables
Table 1: Global Liquid Packaging Cartons Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Application, 2020-2035
Table 2: Global Liquid Packaging Cartons Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Material Type, 2020-2035
Table 3: Global Liquid Packaging Cartons Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Closure Type, 2020-2035
Table 4: Global Liquid Packaging Cartons Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by End Use, 2020-2035
Table 5: Global Liquid Packaging Cartons Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Region, 2020-2035
Table 6: North America Liquid Packaging Cartons Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Application, 2020-2035
Table 7: North America Liquid Packaging Cartons Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Material Type, 2020-2035
Table 8: North America Liquid Packaging Cartons Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Closure Type, 2020-2035
Table 9: North America Liquid Packaging Cartons Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by End Use, 2020-2035
Table 10: North America Liquid Packaging Cartons Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Country, 2020-2035
Table 11: Europe Liquid Packaging Cartons Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Application, 2020-2035
Table 12: Europe Liquid Packaging Cartons Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Material Type, 2020-2035
Table 13: Europe Liquid Packaging Cartons Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Closure Type, 2020-2035
Table 14: Europe Liquid Packaging Cartons Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by End Use, 2020-2035
Table 15: Europe Liquid Packaging Cartons Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Country/ Sub-region, 2020-2035
Table 16: Asia Pacific Liquid Packaging Cartons Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Application, 2020-2035
Table 17: Asia Pacific Liquid Packaging Cartons Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Material Type, 2020-2035
Table 18: Asia Pacific Liquid Packaging Cartons Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Closure Type, 2020-2035
Table 19: Asia Pacific Liquid Packaging Cartons Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by End Use, 2020-2035
Table 20: Asia Pacific Liquid Packaging Cartons Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Country/ Sub-region, 2020-2035
Table 21: Latin America Liquid Packaging Cartons Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Application, 2020-2035
Table 22: Latin America Liquid Packaging Cartons Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Material Type, 2020-2035
Table 23: Latin America Liquid Packaging Cartons Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Closure Type, 2020-2035
Table 24: Latin America Liquid Packaging Cartons Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by End Use, 2020-2035
Table 25: Latin America Liquid Packaging Cartons Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Country/ Sub-region, 2020-2035
Table 26: Middle East & Africa Liquid Packaging Cartons Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Application, 2020-2035
Table 27: Middle East & Africa Liquid Packaging Cartons Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Material Type, 2020-2035
Table 28: Middle East & Africa Liquid Packaging Cartons Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Closure Type, 2020-2035
Table 29: Middle East & Africa Liquid Packaging Cartons Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by End Use, 2020-2035
Table 30: Middle East & Africa Liquid Packaging Cartons Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Country/ Sub-region, 2020-2035