Global Lemon Tea Market Insights, Size, and Forecast By Type (Black Lemon Tea, Green Lemon Tea, Herbal Lemon Tea, Iced Lemon Tea), By Distribution Channel (Supermarkets, Convenience Stores, Online Retail, Specialty Stores), By Packaging Type (Bottled, Canned, Pouch, Tea Bags), By Flavor Profile (Classic Lemon, Lemon Mint, Lemon Ginger, Lemon Chamomile), By Region (North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, Latin America, Middle East and Africa), Key Companies, Competitive Analysis, Trends, and Projections for 2026-2035
Key Market Insights
Global Lemon Tea Market is projected to grow from USD 38.7 Billion in 2025 to USD 65.2 Billion by 2035, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 6.2% from 2026 through 2035. This growth is underpinned by the increasing consumer preference for natural and healthy beverages, with lemon tea being perceived as a refreshing and beneficial option. The market encompasses a wide array of lemon tea products, ranging from traditional hot brews to ready to drink iced teas, catering to diverse consumption habits and preferences. Key market drivers include the rising awareness of the health benefits associated with lemon, such as its Vitamin C content and antioxidant properties, coupled with a broader shift towards functional beverages. Furthermore, the convenience offered by various packaging formats, particularly ready to drink options, significantly contributes to market expansion. However, the market faces restraints from the fluctuating prices of raw materials, particularly tea leaves and lemons, which can impact production costs and retail pricing. Additionally, intense competition from other beverage categories, including coffee and other herbal teas, poses a challenge to market growth.
Global Lemon Tea Market Value (USD Billion) Analysis, 2025-2035
2025 - 2035
www.makdatainsights.com
A significant trend shaping the Global Lemon Tea Market is the growing demand for premium and artisanal lemon tea blends. Consumers are increasingly seeking unique flavor profiles and high quality ingredients, driving innovation in product development. The focus on sustainable and ethically sourced ingredients is another crucial trend, with brands leveraging these attributes to appeal to environmentally conscious consumers. The market also presents significant opportunities in the expansion of product lines to include organic and sugar free lemon tea options, aligning with the rising health consciousness and dietary preferences. Moreover, the development of functional lemon teas infused with additional health benefits, such as immune boosting or stress relieving properties, could unlock new revenue streams. North America currently holds the dominant position in the global market, driven by a well established tea culture, high disposable incomes, and the strong presence of major beverage companies investing in marketing and distribution channels. The region's consumers are readily adopting new and innovative beverage products, further bolstering its market leadership.
Asia Pacific is identified as the fastest growing region in the lemon tea market. This rapid expansion is primarily attributed to the burgeoning middle class, increasing urbanization, and the growing awareness of health and wellness benefits in countries across the region. A traditionally strong tea drinking culture, coupled with evolving lifestyle trends favoring convenient and healthy beverages, is fueling the demand for lemon tea products. Major players in the market include Lipton, Republic of Tea, Dilmah, Brewed Leaf, Tetley, Celestial Seasonings, Snapple, Yogi Tea, Tazo, and Twinings. These companies are employing various strategic initiatives to maintain and expand their market share, including new product launches, strategic partnerships, and robust marketing campaigns. Investments in research and development to introduce innovative flavor combinations and functional benefits are also central to their strategies. Supermarkets remain the leading distribution channel for lemon tea, owing to their extensive reach, convenience, and ability to offer a wide variety of brands and products under one roof. The accessibility and visibility provided by supermarkets significantly contribute to the market's overall sales volume.
Quick Stats
Market Size (2025):
USD 38.7 BillionProjected Market Size (2035):
USD 65.2 BillionLeading Segment:
Supermarkets (42.5% Share)Dominant Region (2025):
North America (35.8% Share)CAGR (2026-2035):
6.2%
What is Lemon Tea?
Lemon tea is a refreshing beverage primarily comprising hot tea infused with lemon juice or slices. Its definition lies in the simple, yet effective, combination of tea's familiar warmth and citrusy brightness. Often sweetened, it offers a balance of tart and sweet, providing both hydration and a pleasant sensory experience. Significantly, it's widely appreciated for its flavor and is often consumed for its purported health benefits, such as vitamin C content. It serves as a versatile drink, enjoyed both casually and as a comforting remedy, demonstrating its broad application in everyday life and wellness practices.
What are the Trends in Global Lemon Tea Market
Premiumization of Lemon Tea Experiences
Functional Lemon Tea Wellness Infusions
Sustainable Sourcing and Packaging Initiatives
Ready To Drink Lemon Tea Convenience Boom
Exotic Flavor Blends and Varietals
Premiumization of Lemon Tea Experiences
Consumers are increasingly seeking elevated lemon tea offerings, moving beyond basic ready to drink options. This premiumization trend manifests in several ways. Brands are introducing artisanal blends featuring single origin teas, exotic lemon varieties like Meyer or Amalfi, and unique complementary flavors such as ginger, mint, or lavender. There's a growing emphasis on high quality, natural ingredients and sophisticated brewing methods. Packaging is also becoming more refined, reflecting a luxurious experience. This shift caters to discerning palates willing to pay more for enhanced taste, perceived health benefits, and a more indulgent, authentic beverage. It signifies a move towards treating lemon tea as a gourmet experience rather than a mere thirst quencher.
Functional Lemon Tea Wellness Infusions
Consumers are increasingly seeking health benefits beyond simple refreshment in their beverages, driving demand for functional ingredients. Lemon tea, already perceived as natural and soothing, is now evolving to incorporate targeted wellness enhancements. This trend sees manufacturers infusing lemon tea with ingredients like adaptogens such as ashwagandha, prebiotics for gut health, or vitamins and minerals. Think calming lavender and lemon blends for stress reduction, or ginger turmeric lemon teas for immune support and anti inflammatory properties. These infusions offer an accessible and palatable way for consumers to integrate specific health conscious choices into their daily routines. The appeal lies in combining familiar comfort with a perceived boost to overall well being, transforming a traditional beverage into a purposeful wellness tool. This shift caters to the growing desire for preventative health and personalized nutrition through convenient, enjoyable formats.
What are the Key Drivers Shaping the Global Lemon Tea Market
Rising Consumer Preference for Healthy and Natural Beverages
Expanding Retail and Online Distribution Channels
Growing Demand for Convenient Ready-to-Drink Options
Increasing Disposable Incomes and Urbanization in Emerging Markets
Innovation in Flavor Profiles and Product Formulations
Rising Consumer Preference for Healthy and Natural Beverages
Consumers worldwide are increasingly prioritizing their health and seeking out beverages that align with a natural lifestyle. This shift is a significant driver in the global lemon tea market. People are becoming more conscious of artificial ingredients, excessive sugars, and synthetic additives in their drinks. Lemon tea, often perceived as a healthier alternative, naturally low in calories and rich in antioxidants, perfectly caters to this evolving preference. Its refreshing taste and association with natural wellness make it an attractive choice for those looking to improve their dietary habits without sacrificing flavor. This growing demand for authentic, beneficial, and simple beverages is propelling the lemon tea market forward as consumers actively choose products that support their well being.
Expanding Retail and Online Distribution Channels
Expanding retail and online distribution channels is a significant driver in the global lemon tea market. This involves lemon tea manufacturers reaching a broader consumer base through diverse sales avenues. Traditional retail, such as supermarkets, convenience stores, and hypermarkets, continues to be crucial, making products readily available to walk in customers. Simultaneously, the surge in e commerce platforms and online grocery delivery services is transforming how consumers purchase lemon tea. Online channels offer convenience, wider product selections, and often competitive pricing, attracting a tech savvy demographic. Furthermore, the growth of food service channels like cafes, restaurants, and institutional catering also plays a role. This multi faceted approach to distribution ensures lemon tea is accessible to consumers across various purchasing preferences and locations, fostering market expansion.
Growing Demand for Convenient Ready-to-Drink Options
Consumers increasingly seek convenience in their beverage choices. The demand for ready-to-drink lemon tea is accelerating due to busy lifestyles and the desire for quick, easy hydration. This shift favors products that are portable and require no preparation, such as bottled or canned lemon tea. Growing urbanization and on-the-go consumption patterns further amplify this trend. Modern consumers prioritize speed and accessibility, making pre-packaged lemon tea a highly attractive option. Manufacturers are responding by expanding their ready-to-drink portfolios, offering diverse flavors and sizes to cater to this convenience-driven market. The ease of grabbing a refreshing lemon tea without any effort significantly boosts its appeal and consumption globally.
Global Lemon Tea Market Restraints
Supply Chain Disruptions & Raw Material Volatility
The global lemon tea market faces significant headwinds from supply chain disruptions and raw material volatility. The delicate balance of acquiring high-quality tea leaves and lemons, often sourced from diverse geographical regions, is constantly threatened by unforeseen events. Climate change, geopolitical instability, and logistical bottlenecks like port congestion or labor shortages can severely impede the timely and cost-effective delivery of these essential ingredients. Such disruptions lead to increased procurement costs for manufacturers, forcing them to absorb higher expenses or pass them on to consumers through price hikes. Furthermore, inconsistent supply can result in production delays and stockouts, limiting product availability and frustrating consumer demand. This volatility in raw material access and pricing directly impacts profitability and market expansion for lemon tea producers worldwide.
Intensifying Competition from Established Beverage Giants
Established beverage giants like Coca Cola, PepsiCo, and Unilever pose a significant restraint in the global lemon tea market. These multinational corporations possess immense financial resources, extensive distribution networks, and well-entrenched brand loyalty built over decades. Their ability to invest heavily in marketing and advertising campaigns creates a high barrier to entry for new lemon tea brands and intensifies competition for existing players. They can leverage their existing supply chains to offer competitive pricing and bundling options, making it challenging for smaller, specialized lemon tea companies to compete effectively. Their vast portfolios allow them to quickly introduce their own lemon tea variants, often at lower price points, thereby fragmenting the market and limiting growth opportunities for independent brands. This intense rivalry necessitates substantial investment in product differentiation and innovation for any player seeking to gain market share.
Global Lemon Tea Market Opportunities
Functional & Convenient Lemon Tea: Capturing the Health & Wellness Consumer
The global lemon tea market presents a significant opportunity by developing functional and convenient products specifically targeting the burgeoning health and wellness consumer. Contemporary lifestyles increasingly prioritize beverages that deliver both effortless consumption and tangible health advantages. This consumer segment actively seeks options supporting immunity, boosting energy, aiding digestion, or mitigating stress, desiring more than just simple refreshment. By enriching lemon tea with beneficial ingredients like vitamins, adaptogens, or prebiotics, brands can craft highly desirable functional offerings. Concurrently, presenting these innovations in ready to drink formats, instant powders, or concentrated mixes addresses the crucial need for convenience. Capturing this discerning consumer base, especially in rapidly expanding regions, enables brands to achieve significant differentiation and premium positioning. This approach transforms lemon tea into an indispensable component of a wholesome daily routine, fostering deep consumer engagement and substantial market growth through products that genuinely align with modern health aspirations.
Premiumization & Innovation in Lemon Tea: Targeting Craft and Sparkling Segments
The global lemon tea market offers a compelling opportunity for premiumization and innovation. Consumers worldwide are increasingly seeking sophisticated and distinctive beverage experiences. This demand creates a clear path for elevating traditional lemon tea into premium offerings.
Innovators can target the burgeoning craft segment by developing artisanal lemon teas. These would feature high quality, natural ingredients, unique flavor profiles perhaps incorporating exotic botanicals or cold brew techniques, and elegant packaging. Such products cater to discerning palates valuing authenticity and superior taste.
Simultaneously, a substantial opportunity exists in the sparkling segment. Introducing effervescent lemon teas provides a refreshing, contemporary twist on a classic. These carbonated versions can appeal to consumers looking for healthier alternatives to sugary sodas or an invigorating, naturally flavored drink. This dual focus on craft and sparkling innovation positions lemon tea to unlock significant growth by meeting evolving preferences for quality, uniqueness, and refreshment.
Global Lemon Tea Market Segmentation Analysis
Key Market Segments
By Type
- •Black Lemon Tea
- •Green Lemon Tea
- •Herbal Lemon Tea
- •Iced Lemon Tea
By Packaging Type
- •Bottled
- •Canned
- •Pouch
- •Tea Bags
By Distribution Channel
- •Supermarkets
- •Convenience Stores
- •Online Retail
- •Specialty Stores
By Flavor Profile
- •Classic Lemon
- •Lemon Mint
- •Lemon Ginger
- •Lemon Chamomile
Segment Share By Type
Share, By Type, 2025 (%)
- Iced Lemon Tea
- Black Lemon Tea
- Green Lemon Tea
- Herbal Lemon Tea
www.makdatainsights.com
Why is Supermarkets dominating the Global Lemon Tea Market?
Supermarkets hold the largest share due to their extensive reach and accessibility. They offer a wide variety of brands and packaging types, catering to diverse consumer preferences in a single shopping trip. Their established infrastructure, competitive pricing, and frequent promotions make them the primary purchase point for most consumers seeking convenience and selection in their lemon tea choices across various regions.
What type of lemon tea is likely experiencing significant growth in the market?
Iced Lemon Tea is experiencing substantial growth, driven by increasing consumer demand for convenient, ready to drink beverages. Its refreshing nature and on the go availability make it a popular choice, particularly among younger demographics and in warmer climates. This segment benefits from innovation in packaging and flavor extensions, broadening its appeal beyond traditional hot tea consumption.
How does packaging type influence consumer choices in the lemon tea market?
Packaging type significantly shapes consumer purchasing habits, with Bottled and Canned options appealing to those seeking immediate consumption and convenience for travel or daily refreshment. Tea Bags remain essential for at home preparation, offering customization and cost effectiveness. Meanwhile, Pouches cater to specific niche markets valuing portability or unique product formats, impacting distribution and perceived value.
What Regulatory and Policy Factors Shape the Global Lemon Tea Market
The global lemon tea market operates within a multifaceted regulatory environment shaped by national and international standards. Food safety remains paramount, necessitating compliance with diverse frameworks including HACCP principles, ISO 22000, and region specific authorities like the US FDA and EU EFSA. Ingredient labeling requires careful attention to origin, nutritional facts, and allergen declarations, varying significantly across jurisdictions. Regulations on permitted additives, preservatives, and artificial sweeteners are stringent, often referencing Codex Alimentarius guidelines while allowing national deviations. Health claims face increasing scrutiny, demanding scientific substantiation to avoid misleading consumers. Furthermore, sustainability policies impacting packaging materials and sourcing practices, alongside growing sugar taxes and advertising restrictions, are crucial considerations for market players worldwide.
What New Technologies are Shaping Global Lemon Tea Market?
The global lemon tea market is experiencing dynamic growth, driven by exciting innovations and emerging technologies. Ingredient science is pushing boundaries, introducing functional lemon teas infused with adaptogens, probiotics, and enhanced vitamin profiles, appealing to health conscious consumers seeking more than just refreshment. Expect personalized flavor experiences through AI driven blend formulations, utilizing exotic citrus varieties and natural botanical extracts for unique taste profiles.
Sustainable packaging solutions are rapidly emerging, including biodegradable materials, compostable pouches, and refillable systems, addressing environmental concerns. Smart packaging integrating QR codes offers supply chain transparency and product information. Ready to drink formats are evolving with advanced preservation techniques like high pressure processing, ensuring freshness and extending shelf life without additives. Furthermore, cold brew methods are gaining traction for smoother, less acidic lemon tea options. Digital platforms are enabling direct to consumer models with customized subscription boxes, enhancing market reach and consumer engagement. These advancements promise a future of diverse, healthier, and environmentally conscious lemon tea choices.
Global Lemon Tea Market Regional Analysis
Global Lemon Tea Market
Trends, by Region
North America Market
Revenue Share, 2025
www.makdatainsights.com
Dominant Region
North America · 35.8% share
North America stands as a dominant region in the Global Lemon Tea Market, commanding a substantial 35.8% market share. This impressive lead is fueled by a robust consumer base with high disposable incomes and a strong preference for convenient, ready to drink beverages. The region benefits from well established distribution networks and aggressive marketing strategies by key players. Health consciousness among consumers also contributes, as lemon tea is often perceived as a healthier alternative. Innovation in flavor profiles and packaging further solidifies North America's position. The competitive landscape, while active, sees strong regional brands and international players vying for continued growth and market penetration.
Fastest Growing Region
Asia Pacific · 9.2% CAGR
Asia Pacific is poised to be the fastest growing region in the global lemon tea market, exhibiting a robust Compound Annual Growth Rate of 9.2% during the 2026 to 2035 forecast period. This significant expansion is driven by several converging factors. Increasing urbanization and disposable incomes across economies like China and India are fueling consumer willingness to experiment with new beverage options. The growing awareness of health benefits associated with lemon and tea is also playing a crucial role, positioning lemon tea as a refreshing and perceived healthy choice. Furthermore, rapid innovations in product offerings, including ready to drink formats and diverse flavor profiles, are broadening the market appeal. The rising penetration of organized retail and e-commerce platforms further facilitates product accessibility, accelerating regional growth.
Top Countries Overview
The U.S. is a pivotal growth market for global lemon tea, driven by health-conscious consumers and diverse flavor preferences. While domestic brands compete, international players are expanding their footprint, leveraging e-commerce and innovative marketing. The U.S. demand influences global trends, particularly in organic and ready-to-drink segments. Its position as a major consumer and innovator shapes the evolving lemon tea landscape.
China dominates the global lemon tea market, driven by a large consumer base and strong cultural ties to tea. Domestic brands are expanding internationally, leveraging traditional tea-making with modern flavors. This growth is fueled by increasing disposable incomes and a rising health consciousness, positioning China as a key player in the evolving global beverage landscape, especially in lemon-flavored variations.
India is a nascent but rapidly growing player in the global lemon tea market. While domestic consumption is significant, its export footprint is expanding, driven by increasing tea production and demand for exotic flavors. Challenges include price fluctuations and competition from established players, but India's diverse tea regions offer a unique advantage in this evolving market.
Impact of Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors
Geopolitically, lemon tea market stability hinges on citrus producing nations like China and India maintaining export capacities. Trade wars or political unrest in these regions could disrupt supply chains, impacting ingredient availability and prices. Furthermore, changing climate patterns pose a long term threat to lemon harvests, forcing companies to diversify sourcing or invest in climate resilient agricultural practices. Consumer preferences also shift with geopolitical events; for example, health scares might boost demand for immunity boosting ingredients, including lemon.
Macroeconomically, disposable income growth in emerging markets directly correlates with increased demand for discretionary beverages like lemon tea. Inflationary pressures on commodities, particularly sugar and tea leaves, directly impact production costs and retail prices. Currency fluctuations affect import costs for raw materials, influencing overall market profitability. Regulatory changes concerning food safety and ingredient labeling also pose compliance challenges, potentially increasing operational expenses for market participants globally.
Recent Developments
- March 2025
Lipton launched a new 'Immunity Boost' lemon tea line, incorporating vitamin C and ginger. This strategic initiative targets health-conscious consumers seeking functional benefits from their beverages.
- February 2025
Republic of Tea announced a partnership with a major organic lemon supplier in Italy. This collaboration aims to ensure a consistent supply of premium, sustainably sourced lemons for their expanding range of lemon teas.
- January 2025
Brewed Leaf acquired a smaller, artisan tea company specializing in unique fruit-infused blends. This acquisition strengthens Brewed Leaf's portfolio and allows them to introduce more diverse lemon tea flavors to the market.
- November 2024
Tetley launched its first-ever ready-to-drink (RTD) chilled lemon tea line in select supermarkets across North America. This product launch marks Tetley's entry into the growing RTD beverage segment, aiming for increased convenience for consumers.
- October 2024
Yogi Tea initiated a strategic partnership with a leading e-commerce platform to expand its global online distribution for its popular lemon ginger tea. This move is designed to reach a wider international audience and boost direct-to-consumer sales.
Key Players Analysis
The Global Lemon Tea Market is driven by established brands and innovative smaller players. Lipton and Tetley dominate with their extensive distribution networks and traditional tea bag formats, emphasizing convenience and value. Republic of Tea, Dilmah, and Twinings cater to premium segments, focusing on loose leaf, ethically sourced ingredients, and unique flavor profiles, utilizing advanced blending and packaging technologies. Celestial Seasonings, Yogi Tea, and Tazo target health conscious consumers with organic and herbal lemon tea options, often incorporating functional ingredients and sustainable practices. Brewed Leaf and Snapple offer ready to drink lemon teas, leveraging cold brew and advanced preservation methods to capture on the go consumption. Strategic initiatives include product diversification, sustainable sourcing, and e commerce expansion, all fueled by rising consumer demand for healthier and convenient beverage options.
List of Key Companies:
- Lipton
- Republic of Tea
- Dilmah
- Brewed Leaf
- Tetley
- Celestial Seasonings
- Snapple
- Yogi Tea
- Tazo
- Twinings
- Nestea
- Pure Leaf
- Stash Tea
- Harney and Sons
- Fuze Tea
- Bigelow
Report Scope and Segmentation
| Report Component | Description |
|---|---|
| Market Size (2025) | USD 38.7 Billion |
| Forecast Value (2035) | USD 65.2 Billion |
| CAGR (2026-2035) | 6.2% |
| Base Year | 2025 |
| Historical Period | 2020-2025 |
| Forecast Period | 2026-2035 |
| Segments Covered |
|
| Regional Analysis |
|
Table of Contents:
List of Figures
List of Tables
Table 1: Global Lemon Tea Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Type, 2020-2035
Table 2: Global Lemon Tea Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Packaging Type, 2020-2035
Table 3: Global Lemon Tea Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Distribution Channel, 2020-2035
Table 4: Global Lemon Tea Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Flavor Profile, 2020-2035
Table 5: Global Lemon Tea Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Region, 2020-2035
Table 6: North America Lemon Tea Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Type, 2020-2035
Table 7: North America Lemon Tea Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Packaging Type, 2020-2035
Table 8: North America Lemon Tea Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Distribution Channel, 2020-2035
Table 9: North America Lemon Tea Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Flavor Profile, 2020-2035
Table 10: North America Lemon Tea Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Country, 2020-2035
Table 11: Europe Lemon Tea Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Type, 2020-2035
Table 12: Europe Lemon Tea Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Packaging Type, 2020-2035
Table 13: Europe Lemon Tea Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Distribution Channel, 2020-2035
Table 14: Europe Lemon Tea Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Flavor Profile, 2020-2035
Table 15: Europe Lemon Tea Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Country/ Sub-region, 2020-2035
Table 16: Asia Pacific Lemon Tea Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Type, 2020-2035
Table 17: Asia Pacific Lemon Tea Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Packaging Type, 2020-2035
Table 18: Asia Pacific Lemon Tea Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Distribution Channel, 2020-2035
Table 19: Asia Pacific Lemon Tea Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Flavor Profile, 2020-2035
Table 20: Asia Pacific Lemon Tea Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Country/ Sub-region, 2020-2035
Table 21: Latin America Lemon Tea Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Type, 2020-2035
Table 22: Latin America Lemon Tea Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Packaging Type, 2020-2035
Table 23: Latin America Lemon Tea Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Distribution Channel, 2020-2035
Table 24: Latin America Lemon Tea Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Flavor Profile, 2020-2035
Table 25: Latin America Lemon Tea Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Country/ Sub-region, 2020-2035
Table 26: Middle East & Africa Lemon Tea Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Type, 2020-2035
Table 27: Middle East & Africa Lemon Tea Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Packaging Type, 2020-2035
Table 28: Middle East & Africa Lemon Tea Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Distribution Channel, 2020-2035
Table 29: Middle East & Africa Lemon Tea Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Flavor Profile, 2020-2035
Table 30: Middle East & Africa Lemon Tea Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Country/ Sub-region, 2020-2035