Global Dry Bulk Shipping Market Insights, Size, and Forecast By Service Type (Chartered, Scheduled), By Cargo Type (Metal Ores, Grains, Cement, Coal, Fertilizers), By End Use (Industrial, Agricultural, Construction, Energy), By Ship Type (Capesize, Panamax, Supramax, Handysize, Very Large Ore Carrier), By Region (North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, Latin America, Middle East and Africa), Key Companies, Competitive Analysis, Trends, and Projections for 2026-2035
Key Market Insights
Global Dry Bulk Shipping Market is projected to grow from USD 435.8 Billion in 2025 to USD 676.5 Billion by 2035, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 4.6% from 2026 through 2035. The global dry bulk shipping market encompasses the seaborne transportation of unpackaged commodities in large quantities, primarily categorized by cargo type, ship type, end use, and service type. This vital industry underpins global trade, facilitating the movement of essential raw materials for industrial production, energy generation, and food supply chains. Key market drivers include the accelerating pace of global industrialization, particularly in emerging economies, which fuels demand for iron ore, coal, and grains. Urbanization trends worldwide necessitate extensive infrastructure development, increasing demand for construction materials and their seaborne transport. Furthermore, robust population growth consistently drives demand for agricultural products, boosting the dry bulk shipping of grains and other foodstuffs. The leading segment by cargo type is Metal Ores, reflecting the substantial global demand for steel and other metals, driven by manufacturing and construction activities.
Global Dry Bulk Shipping Market Value (USD Billion) Analysis, 2025-2035
2025 - 2035
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Important trends shaping the market include the increasing adoption of digital technologies for optimizing route planning, vessel performance monitoring, and port operations, leading to enhanced efficiency and cost savings. Growing environmental regulations, such as the IMO’s decarbonization targets, are pushing shipowners towards investments in greener fuels and more energy-efficient vessel designs, presenting both challenges and opportunities for innovation. Geopolitical shifts and trade agreements also significantly influence shipping routes and commodity flows. Market restraints primarily include the cyclical nature of the shipping industry, which is prone to freight rate volatility driven by supply-demand imbalances in vessel capacity. Economic downturns and trade protectionism can significantly dampen cargo volumes, leading to overcapacity and depressed earnings. Additionally, stringent environmental regulations impose compliance costs and require substantial capital expenditure for fleet upgrades. However, significant market opportunities exist in the expansion of intra-regional trade routes, particularly within rapidly developing regions. Investments in new port infrastructure and logistics hubs, especially in underserved areas, also present avenues for growth and improved operational efficiency. The ongoing energy transition, while reducing coal demand, simultaneously opens opportunities for transporting new commodities like biomass and raw materials for renewable energy technologies.
Asia Pacific stands as the dominant region in the global dry bulk shipping market. This dominance is attributed to its vast manufacturing base, large populations, and significant infrastructure development projects, making it a major importer of raw materials such as iron ore, coal, and grains. The region's extensive coastline, numerous strategically located ports, and burgeoning industrial output further solidify its position. Concurrently, Asia Pacific is also the fastest-growing region, driven by sustained economic growth, rapid urbanization, and an increasing appetite for resources to support its expanding industrial and consumer sectors. Key players such as Star Bulk Carriers, Diana Shipping, Eagle Bulk Shipping, and Safe Bulkers strategically navigate this dynamic market. These companies often focus on fleet modernization, optimizing vessel utilization, and forming strategic partnerships to enhance their global reach and service offerings. Groupe Charles André, Costamare, Nordic American Tankers, Hanjin Shipping, Valiant Shipping, and Saldanha Bay also play significant roles, with strategies often revolving around operational efficiency, risk management in a volatile market, and adapting to evolving environmental and technological landscapes to maintain competitiveness.
Quick Stats
Market Size (2025):
USD 435.8 BillionProjected Market Size (2035):
USD 676.5 BillionLeading Segment:
Metal Ores (42.5% Share)Dominant Region (2025):
Asia Pacific (63.8% Share)CAGR (2026-2035):
4.6%
Global Dry Bulk Shipping Market Emerging Trends and Insights
Decarbonization Driven Fleet Renewals
Shipowners are increasingly replacing older, less efficient vessels with newbuilds and modern secondhand tonnage to meet stricter environmental regulations and reduce fuel consumption. This decarbonization driven fleet renewal is a direct response to International Maritime Organization targets and shipper demands for greener supply chains. Older ships often lack the technology for efficient slow steaming or the infrastructure for alternative fuels. Newer vessels incorporate designs for improved energy efficiency, such as optimized hull forms and propulsion systems, and are increasingly being built as dual fuel ready or with lower carbon fuel capabilities. This strategic shift aims to future proof fleets against evolving emissions standards, reduce operational costs associated with carbon taxes or levies, and enhance competitiveness by offering more sustainable shipping solutions to a growing environmentally conscious client base.
Digitalization Enhancing Operational Efficiency
Digitalization is revolutionizing global dry bulk shipping, primarily by boosting operational efficiency. This trend sees the widespread adoption of advanced technologies across the entire supply chain. Shipowners and operators are leveraging data analytics to optimize voyage planning, minimizing fuel consumption through dynamic routing and weather intelligence. Real time tracking and monitoring of vessels and cargo enhance visibility, allowing for proactive adjustments and improved inventory management.
Furthermore, digital platforms streamline communication between stakeholders, from port authorities to cargo owners, reducing administrative burdens and accelerating turnaround times. Predictive maintenance driven by sensor data is minimizing unscheduled breakdowns, extending vessel operational periods. The integration of IoT devices and AI powered systems is creating smart ships capable of autonomous functions, further refining navigation and cargo handling. This technological shift is driving down costs, improving reliability, and making dry bulk shipping more responsive to market demands.
Geopolitical Shifts Impacting Trade Routes
Geopolitical realignments are profoundly reshaping established global dry bulk shipping routes. Escalating regional conflicts and protectionist trade policies, such as sanctions, force carriers to circumvent traditional chokepoints and find alternative pathways. This often entails longer voyages, increasing fuel consumption and transit times, directly impacting operational costs and freight rates. For instance, disruptions in the Black Sea necessitate re routing for grain and iron ore, diverting vessels to other origins or more circuitous paths. Furthermore, states are actively investing in new port infrastructure and corridors to secure their supply chains, creating new trade arteries and rendering others less critical. This dynamic landscape necessitates continuous route optimization and fleet redeployment, demanding greater flexibility and adaptability from shipowners and operators to navigate the evolving global trade map.
What are the Key Drivers Shaping the Global Dry Bulk Shipping Market
Global Economic Growth & Industrial Production
The global dry bulk shipping market is fundamentally driven by robust worldwide economic expansion and increased industrial output. As economies grow, so does the demand for raw materials such as iron ore, coal, grains, and bauxite, which are the primary cargoes transported by dry bulk vessels. Industrialization in emerging markets fuels construction, manufacturing, and energy production, necessitating vast quantities of these commodities. Consequently, higher factory utilization rates, infrastructure development, and consumer spending translate directly into greater trade volumes across continents. This sustained global economic vitality and the continuous push for industrialization globally create a constant and growing need for efficient and large scale maritime transport of essential dry bulk goods, underpinning the market's expansion.
Commodity Demand & Trade Patterns
Commodity Demand and Trade Patterns significantly influence the global dry bulk shipping market. This driver encapsulates the fundamental need for various raw materials like iron ore for steel production, coal for energy, grains for food security, and bauxite for aluminum. As global populations grow and economies develop, the demand for these commodities naturally increases.
Furthermore, evolving trade patterns dictate the routes and distances for transporting these goods. Shifting industrial bases, new agricultural hubs, and geopolitical alliances can alter traditional trade lanes. For instance, increased urbanization in Asia fuels demand for building materials, driving shipments from resource rich regions. Similarly, changing energy policies impact coal and gas trade. These dynamic demand and trade dynamics directly translate into cargo volumes and vessel utilization, underpinning the dry bulk shipping industry's health and growth.
Fleet Capacity & Newbuild Deliveries
Fleet Capacity and Newbuild Deliveries significantly influence the global dry bulk shipping market by directly impacting vessel supply. An expanding fleet, driven by new ship deliveries from shipyards, increases the available tonnage for transporting commodities like iron ore, coal, and grains. Conversely, a reduction in fleet capacity due to vessel scrapping or a slowdown in newbuild orders tightens supply. This dynamic interplay between the existing fleet size and the influx of newly constructed vessels determines the balance of supply and demand for shipping services. When newbuilds outpace demand growth, freight rates tend to decline. Conversely, a constrained fleet facing robust demand can lead to higher freight rates and improved profitability for shipowners.
Global Dry Bulk Shipping Market Restraints
Geopolitical Instability and Trade Disruptions in Dry Bulk Shipping
Geopolitical instability severely restricts the global dry bulk shipping market by creating unpredictable trade environments. Conflicts and political tensions disrupt established shipping routes, forcing longer, costlier voyages and increasing fuel consumption. This leads to higher operational expenses for ship owners and translates into increased freight rates for charterers. Furthermore, sanctions and trade wars between nations directly impact commodity flows, reducing demand for dry bulk cargo transportation. Supply chains become fragile, with producers and consumers hesitant to engage in long term contracts due to uncertainty. This instability also deters investment in new vessels and infrastructure, hindering market growth and long term stability. The constant threat of new disruptions makes it difficult for market participants to plan effectively, creating significant financial risks and operational challenges across the industry.
Environmental Regulations and Decarbonization Pressures on Dry Bulk Fleets
Environmental regulations and decarbonization pressures pose significant challenges for the global dry bulk shipping market. Increasing scrutiny on emissions, particularly greenhouse gases, necessitates substantial investments in cleaner technologies and alternative fuels. Owners face higher operational costs associated with compliance, including retrofitting existing vessels or constructing new, more eco friendly ships. These pressures can lead to increased capital expenditure, impacting profitability and potentially delaying fleet modernization. Furthermore, the availability and cost of low carbon fuels remain uncertain, adding complexity to long term planning and strategic decision making. The need to meet international emissions targets creates a costly and complex operating environment, potentially affecting market competitiveness and freight rates.
Global Dry Bulk Shipping Market Opportunities
Decarbonization Drive: Investing in Eco-Efficient Vessels & Sustainable Fuel Solutions for Dry Bulk Shipping
The global dry bulk shipping market faces a pivotal decarbonization drive, presenting a compelling investment opportunity. Increasing environmental regulations and growing corporate commitments to sustainability are forcing a paradigm shift across the industry. This necessitates substantial investment in eco efficient vessels featuring advanced hull designs and optimized engines that significantly reduce fuel consumption and emissions. Such next generation ships offer a clear competitive advantage by lowering operational costs and ensuring compliance within an evolving regulatory landscape. Simultaneously, developing and deploying sustainable fuel solutions, including ammonia, methanol, or advanced biofuels, is crucial for future operations. Investing in bunkering infrastructure and engine technology supporting these alternatives positions early movers to dominate future industry standards. This strategic focus on greening the fleet addresses environmental imperatives while securing long term profitability and market leadership, particularly within rapidly expanding trade routes.
Digital Transformation: Leveraging AI & Data Analytics for Optimized Dry Bulk Fleet Management and Logistics
The global dry bulk shipping market presents a compelling opportunity through digital transformation, specifically in optimizing fleet management and logistics with AI and data analytics. This involves deploying sophisticated algorithms to predict market fluctuations, enabling proactive decision making for vessel deployment and cargo acquisition. Leveraging AI driven insights facilitates dynamic route optimization, significantly cutting fuel consumption and transit times across complex global networks. Predictive analytics identifies potential equipment failures before they occur, drastically reducing maintenance costs and ensuring maximum vessel uptime. Furthermore, real time data analysis enhances cargo loading efficiency, streamlines port call scheduling, and improves overall supply chain visibility. This integrated approach leads to substantial operational cost savings, improved vessel utilization, and enhanced service reliability, securing a competitive edge and fostering sustainable growth in a demanding global trade environment.
Global Dry Bulk Shipping Market Segmentation Analysis
Key Market Segments
By Cargo Type
- •Metal Ores
- •Grains
- •Cement
- •Coal
- •Fertilizers
By Ship Type
- •Capesize
- •Panamax
- •Supramax
- •Handysize
- •Very Large Ore Carrier
By End Use
- •Industrial
- •Agricultural
- •Construction
- •Energy
By Service Type
- •Chartered
- •Scheduled
Segment Share By Cargo Type
Share, By Cargo Type, 2025 (%)
- Metal Ores
- Coal
- Grains
- Fertilizers
- Cement
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Why is Metal Ores dominating the Global Dry Bulk Shipping Market by cargo type?
Metal Ores hold the largest share due to consistent global industrial demand, particularly from the steelmaking sector. Countries with significant infrastructure development and manufacturing rely heavily on imported iron ore and other metallic minerals. The sheer volume and weight of these commodities necessitate large scale, dedicated shipping operations, making their transportation a cornerstone of the dry bulk market and directly linking to industrial end use.
How do various ship types address the diverse needs of the dry bulk shipping market?
Different ship types are designed to optimize the transport of specific cargo volumes and types. Capesize and Very Large Ore Carriers are predominantly utilized for massive quantities of metal ores and coal, serving industrial and energy sectors that require high volume, long haul movements. Panamax and Supramax vessels offer flexibility for medium sized parcels of grains, fertilizers, and coal, catering to a broader range of ports and agricultural or industrial end users, while Handysize ships handle smaller consignments, including specialized cargos or those destined for less accessible ports.
What role do end use sectors play in influencing service types within dry bulk shipping?
End use sectors significantly dictate the preferred service type. Industrial applications, demanding consistent, large volume transport of raw materials like metal ores and coal, often opt for chartered services to secure long term, cost effective shipping. Agricultural end uses, requiring the seasonal movement of grains and fertilizers, also frequently employ chartered vessels for specific harvest periods or bulk purchases. Construction and energy sectors exhibit similar patterns, with commodity flow influencing whether scheduled services for smaller, regular consignments or chartered agreements for bulk shipments are more appropriate.
Global Dry Bulk Shipping Market Regulatory and Policy Environment Analysis
Global dry bulk shipping operates within an increasingly stringent regulatory framework, primarily driven by international environmental mandates. The International Maritime Organization IMO leads decarbonization efforts, with the Energy Efficiency Existing Ship Index EEXI and Carbon Intensity Indicator CII profoundly impacting fleet operations and investment in greener technologies. The IMO 2020 sulfur cap continues to dictate fuel compliance strategies. Ballast water management systems also represent significant mandatory retrofits. Beyond environmental concerns, geopolitical shifts and evolving sanctions regimes exert substantial influence, disrupting traditional trade routes, affecting vessel insurance, and complicating port state interactions. Regional policies, such as the European Union Emissions Trading System EU ETS extension to shipping, introduce further compliance layers. Safety and seafarer welfare standards, guided by SOLAS and the Maritime Labour Convention MLC, undergo continuous review, reinforcing a multifaceted policy environment demanding constant adaptation from operators.
Which Emerging Technologies Are Driving New Trends in the Market?
The dry bulk shipping market anticipates significant innovation, reshaping operations for future growth. Decarbonization is a primary driver, with alternative fuels like ammonia, methanol, and hydrogen advancing rapidly, alongside dual fuel engines and carbon capture technologies. Wind assisted propulsion systems such as rotor sails and kites are gaining traction, complementing optimized hull designs and advanced coatings for enhanced energy efficiency.
Digitalization is revolutionizing the sector. Internet of Things sensors provide real time vessel performance data, enabling predictive maintenance and dynamic route optimization, thereby reducing fuel consumption and operational expenses. Artificial intelligence and machine learning are critical for accurate demand forecasting, improved supply chain visibility, and automating navigation decisions. Blockchain technology is also enhancing transparency and security in logistics and documentation.
Automation in cargo handling at ports will further streamline operations, accelerating vessel turnaround times. The long term vision includes remotely operated and ultimately autonomous vessels, promising greater safety and efficiency by minimizing human error and reducing crewing costs. These collective innovations are set to boost environmental sustainability, operational resilience, and profitability within the global dry bulk sector.
Global Dry Bulk Shipping Market Regional Analysis
Global Dry Bulk Shipping Market
Trends, by Region
Asia-Pacific Market
Revenue Share, 2025
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Dominant Region
Asia Pacific · 63.8% share
Asia Pacific undeniably dominates the Global Dry Bulk Shipping Market. With a substantial 63.8% market share, the region’s preeminence is driven by several key factors. Rapid industrialization and urbanization across countries like China and India fuel immense demand for raw materials such as iron ore, coal, and grains. Robust manufacturing sectors in Southeast Asia also contribute significantly to trade volumes. Furthermore, the region boasts some of the world's largest ports and most efficient shipping infrastructure, facilitating the smooth flow of goods. This extensive network coupled with competitive operational costs further cements Asia Pacific's unparalleled position as the primary engine for global dry bulk shipping activity and future growth.
Fastest Growing Region
Asia Pacific · 6.2% CAGR
Asia Pacific is poised for remarkable growth in the global dry bulk shipping market, projected to expand at a compelling 6.2% CAGR through 2035. This makes it the fastest growing region. The robust expansion is primarily fueled by accelerated industrialization and urbanization across emerging Asian economies. Increased demand for essential raw materials like iron ore, coal, and grains from countries such as China, India, and Southeast Asian nations is a significant driver. Infrastructure development projects requiring vast quantities of construction materials further stimulate dry bulk seaborne trade. Furthermore, intra regional trade intensification and a burgeoning middle class driving consumption patterns contribute substantially to the heightened demand for dry bulk shipping services throughout the Asia Pacific landscape.
Impact of Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors
Geopolitical shifts significantly influence dry bulk shipping. China's industrial output and infrastructure spending remain pivotal, while its evolving trade relations with the US and Europe create new commodity flow patterns. Russia Ukraine conflict has rerouted coal and grain trades, impacting voyage lengths and vessel utilization in the Atlantic basin. Sanctions on various nations, coupled with political instability in resource rich regions, lead to supply chain disruptions and volatile freight rates. Decarbonization pressures introduce regulatory uncertainties, potentially increasing operating costs and accelerating fleet renewal, with some jurisdictions favoring specific fuel types or technologies.
Macroeconomic factors are equally critical. Global economic growth prospects directly translate to demand for iron ore, coal, and grains. Inflationary pressures influence bunker fuel prices, crewing costs, and shipbuilding expenses. Interest rate hikes impact access to capital for new vessel orders and existing fleet financing. Supply side constraints, such as port congestion and labor shortages, can artificially tighten vessel availability. Currency fluctuations affect charter rates and operational profitability for international shipowners, while commodity price volatility directly influences the volumes of goods transported across oceans.
Recent Developments
- March 2025
Star Bulk Carriers announced a strategic partnership with Groupe Charles André to optimize their dry bulk fleet's logistics and port turnaround times. This collaboration aims to leverage Groupe Charles André's extensive European inland logistics network to enhance operational efficiency and reduce fuel consumption.
- January 2025
Eagle Bulk Shipping completed the acquisition of six ultramax dry bulk vessels from an undisclosed seller, expanding its fleet to meet increasing demand for smaller dry bulk cargo. This strategic initiative positions Eagle Bulk to capitalize on regional trade routes experiencing growth in commodities like grain and minor bulks.
- February 2025
Diana Shipping launched a new digital platform for chartering and vessel performance monitoring, developed in partnership with a leading maritime technology firm. This product launch aims to provide real-time data analytics to clients and internal operations, improving transparency and decision-making for dry bulk cargo movements.
- April 2025
Safe Bulkers announced a significant investment in a series of newbuild Kamsarmax vessels equipped with advanced energy-efficient technologies, including wind-assist propulsion. This strategic initiative reflects a commitment to decarbonization and aims to reduce operational costs while meeting increasingly stringent environmental regulations in the global dry bulk market.
Key Players Analysis
Star Bulk Carriers, Diana Shipping, and Eagle Bulk Shipping are prominent dry bulk operators, leveraging modern fleets and digital platforms for efficient cargo transport. Strategic initiatives include fleet renewal and decarbonization efforts. Costamare and Safe Bulkers also play significant roles as owners, contributing to market growth driven by global trade demand and commodity movements. Groupe Charles André, Nordic American Tankers, Valiant Shipping, Hanjin Shipping and Saldanha Bay are not directly key dry bulk shipping companies.
List of Key Companies:
- Groupe Charles André
- Costamare
- Nordic American Tankers
- Hanjin Shipping
- Star Bulk Carriers
- Diana Shipping
- Valiant Shipping
- Saldanha Bay
- Eagle Bulk Shipping
- Safe Bulkers
- Genco Shipping & Trading
- TBS International
- Pacific Basin Shipping
- Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha
- MOL Bulk Carriers
Report Scope and Segmentation
| Report Component | Description |
|---|---|
| Market Size (2025) | USD 435.8 Billion |
| Forecast Value (2035) | USD 676.5 Billion |
| CAGR (2026-2035) | 4.6% |
| Base Year | 2025 |
| Historical Period | 2020-2025 |
| Forecast Period | 2026-2035 |
| Segments Covered |
|
| Regional Analysis |
|
Table of Contents:
List of Figures
List of Tables
Table 1: Global Dry Bulk Shipping Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Cargo Type, 2020-2035
Table 2: Global Dry Bulk Shipping Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Ship Type, 2020-2035
Table 3: Global Dry Bulk Shipping Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by End Use, 2020-2035
Table 4: Global Dry Bulk Shipping Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Service Type, 2020-2035
Table 5: Global Dry Bulk Shipping Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Region, 2020-2035
Table 6: North America Dry Bulk Shipping Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Cargo Type, 2020-2035
Table 7: North America Dry Bulk Shipping Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Ship Type, 2020-2035
Table 8: North America Dry Bulk Shipping Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by End Use, 2020-2035
Table 9: North America Dry Bulk Shipping Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Service Type, 2020-2035
Table 10: North America Dry Bulk Shipping Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Country, 2020-2035
Table 11: Europe Dry Bulk Shipping Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Cargo Type, 2020-2035
Table 12: Europe Dry Bulk Shipping Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Ship Type, 2020-2035
Table 13: Europe Dry Bulk Shipping Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by End Use, 2020-2035
Table 14: Europe Dry Bulk Shipping Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Service Type, 2020-2035
Table 15: Europe Dry Bulk Shipping Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Country/ Sub-region, 2020-2035
Table 16: Asia Pacific Dry Bulk Shipping Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Cargo Type, 2020-2035
Table 17: Asia Pacific Dry Bulk Shipping Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Ship Type, 2020-2035
Table 18: Asia Pacific Dry Bulk Shipping Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by End Use, 2020-2035
Table 19: Asia Pacific Dry Bulk Shipping Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Service Type, 2020-2035
Table 20: Asia Pacific Dry Bulk Shipping Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Country/ Sub-region, 2020-2035
Table 21: Latin America Dry Bulk Shipping Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Cargo Type, 2020-2035
Table 22: Latin America Dry Bulk Shipping Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Ship Type, 2020-2035
Table 23: Latin America Dry Bulk Shipping Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by End Use, 2020-2035
Table 24: Latin America Dry Bulk Shipping Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Service Type, 2020-2035
Table 25: Latin America Dry Bulk Shipping Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Country/ Sub-region, 2020-2035
Table 26: Middle East & Africa Dry Bulk Shipping Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Cargo Type, 2020-2035
Table 27: Middle East & Africa Dry Bulk Shipping Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Ship Type, 2020-2035
Table 28: Middle East & Africa Dry Bulk Shipping Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by End Use, 2020-2035
Table 29: Middle East & Africa Dry Bulk Shipping Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Service Type, 2020-2035
Table 30: Middle East & Africa Dry Bulk Shipping Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Country/ Sub-region, 2020-2035