Global Craft Spirit Market Insights, Size, and Forecast By Distribution Channel (Online Retail, Supermarkets, Specialty Stores, Bars and Restaurants), By Alcohol Content (Low Alcohol, Medium Alcohol, High Alcohol), By Packaging Type (Glass Bottles, Plastic Bottles, Cans, Kegs), By Product Type (Gin, Whiskey, Vodka, Rum, Tequila), By Region (North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, Latin America, Middle East and Africa), Key Companies, Competitive Analysis, Trends, and Projections for 2026-2035
Key Market Insights
Global Craft Spirit Market is projected to grow from USD 42.5 Billion in 2025 to USD 185.8 Billion by 2035, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 9.6% from 2026 through 2035. This dynamic market encompasses small batch, artisanal spirits produced by independent distilleries that prioritize quality, unique flavor profiles, and often locally sourced ingredients over mass production. The rising consumer demand for premium, authentic, and differentiated beverage experiences is a primary driver. Consumers are increasingly seeking out spirits with transparent origins, compelling brand stories, and a connection to local communities, moving away from conventional, mass-produced options. The flourishing cocktail culture globally further fuels this growth, as mixologists and home enthusiasts alike explore diverse craft spirit options to create sophisticated and innovative drinks. Urbanization and increasing disposable incomes in emerging economies also contribute significantly, enabling a broader demographic to indulge in these higher-priced, specialty beverages. However, challenges such as intense competition from established global players, stringent regulatory landscapes concerning production and distribution, and the higher production costs associated with small batch operations pose significant restraints to market expansion.
Global Craft Spirit Market Value (USD Billion) Analysis, 2025-2035
2025 - 2035
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North America currently dominates the global craft spirit market, driven by a well-established craft beer and spirit culture, a high concentration of independent distilleries, and robust consumer awareness and appreciation for artisanal products. The region benefits from supportive regulatory frameworks in many areas that foster craft spirit production and distribution. Meanwhile, Asia Pacific is identified as the fastest growing region, poised for substantial expansion over the forecast period. This growth is attributable to increasing urbanization, a burgeoning middle class with rising disposable incomes, and the growing influence of Western drinking habits and premiumization trends within the region. Local distilleries are emerging, and international craft brands are strategically entering these markets, adapting their offerings to local palates and preferences. The region presents significant opportunities for market penetration and growth, particularly as consumer preferences shift towards more unique and experiential products.
Important trends shaping the market include the continued innovation in product types, with a focus on experimental flavors, sustainable production practices, and alternative aging techniques. The rise of ready to drink craft cocktails and non alcoholic craft spirits also presents a significant opportunity for market diversification and reaching new consumer segments. Direct to consumer sales models, facilitated by e-commerce, are gaining traction, allowing craft distilleries to connect directly with their customer base and build stronger brand loyalty. Key players such as WhistlePig, Campari Group, and Diageo are actively acquiring smaller craft distiller brands or launching their own craft lines to capitalize on this growing trend. Suntory Holdings and The Sazerac Company are investing in expanding their craft portfolios, while companies like Castle & Key Distillery and St. George Spirits focus on unique distillation processes and ingredient sourcing to differentiate themselves. Bacardi and Constellation Brands are leveraging their extensive distribution networks to bring craft spirits to a wider audience, further intensifying the competitive landscape.
Quick Stats
Market Size (2025):
USD 42.5 BillionProjected Market Size (2035):
USD 185.8 BillionLeading Segment:
Whiskey (34.8% Share)Dominant Region (2025):
North America (38.2% Share)CAGR (2026-2035):
9.6%
What is Craft Spirit?
A craft spirit is an artisanal alcoholic beverage produced in small batches, often by independent distillers. Its definition centers on intentionality and quality over volume. Craft distillers typically emphasize local ingredients, traditional methods, and innovative flavor profiles, often utilizing pot stills and unique aging processes. The focus is on the human touch throughout distillation, fermentation, and bottling. This dedication results in spirits with distinct character, reflecting the creator's vision and regional influences. Its significance lies in offering consumers a diverse range of unique, high quality alternatives to mass produced products, fostering a culture of appreciation for the art and science of distillation.
What are the Trends in Global Craft Spirit Market
Hyperlocal Distillation Revival
Botanical Infusion Innovation
Sustainable Spirit Sourcing
Experiential Craft Distillery Tourism
Ready to Drink Craft Cocktails
Hyperlocal Distillation Revival
Hyperlocal Distillation Revival signifies a profound shift towards ultra regional craft spirits. Consumers increasingly seek unique liquid narratives reflecting specific terrains, local agricultural practices and indigenous botanicals. Distilleries are emerging within very confined geographical pockets often utilizing heritage grains, fruits or yeasts cultivated solely within that immediate vicinity. This trend emphasizes exceptional quality and distinctiveness derived from hyper local sourcing and production methods. It's a rejection of mass produced uniformity, celebrating the specific terroir and human ingenuity of a micro region. This focus creates authentic, limited edition spirits with compelling stories that resonate deeply with drinkers seeking genuine connection to their libations' origins, fostering a vibrant ecosystem of truly place specific expressions.
Botanical Infusion Innovation
Botanical infusion innovation is revolutionizing the global craft spirit market by expanding beyond traditional juniper centric gins into a rich tapestry of flavors. Distillers are experimenting with locally sourced and exotic botanicals like elderflower hibiscus cardamom pink peppercorns and even sea kelp. This trend emphasizes unique aromatic profiles and complex palates offering consumers a sophisticated alternative to established spirit categories. The focus is on small batch production artisanal techniques and transparent sourcing showcasing the natural essence of each botanical. This creative exploration caters to an adventurous consumer base seeking novel taste experiences and products with a distinct sense of origin and handcrafted quality fostering a vibrant landscape of unique and expressive spirits.
What are the Key Drivers Shaping the Global Craft Spirit Market
Premiumization & Experiential Consumption
Health & Wellness Trend Integration
E-commerce & Digital Marketing Expansion
Flavor Innovation & Diversification
Sustainability & Ethical Sourcing Demand
Premiumization & Experiential Consumption
Consumers are increasingly seeking higher quality, unique, and more engaging spirit experiences. This driver reflects a shift from mere consumption to an appreciation for craftsmanship, authenticity, and provenance. Consumers are willing to pay more for spirits made with premium ingredients, artisanal methods, and compelling backstories. They desire unique flavor profiles, limited editions, and handcrafted bottles that reflect a sense of occasion and exclusivity. Beyond the product itself, there's a growing demand for experiences tied to craft spirits, such as distillery tours, tasting events, and mixology classes. These experiences allow consumers to connect with the brand and the spirit making process, enriching their consumption and fostering a sense of discovery and connoisseurship. This trend elevates craft spirits beyond commodities, positioning them as luxury goods and lifestyle statements.
Health & Wellness Trend Integration
Consumers are increasingly prioritizing well-being, driving demand for craft spirits aligning with this lifestyle. This trend manifests as a preference for products perceived as natural, less processed, or offering functional benefits. Brands integrate this by highlighting organic ingredients, sustainable sourcing, lower calorie options, or botanical infusions known for their health properties. There is a growing interest in spirits that offer mindful consumption experiences, emphasizing quality over quantity and a desire for transparency regarding ingredients and production methods. This focus on naturalness, ingredient purity, and perceived health advantages is a significant purchasing motivator, compelling craft distillers to innovate with products that cater to this health-onscious consumer base.
E-commerce & Digital Marketing Expansion
The explosion of e commerce platforms and sophisticated digital marketing strategies is a critical engine for the global craft spirit market. Online marketplaces provide unparalleled reach allowing niche craft distilleries to bypass traditional distribution hurdles and connect directly with a wider, global consumer base. Social media campaigns influencer partnerships and targeted advertising cultivate brand awareness and desirability among discerning drinkers seeking unique authentic experiences. These digital avenues facilitate direct storytelling showcasing the craft spirit's heritage production methods and distinct flavor profiles. Furthermore convenience of online shopping and home delivery services caters to modern consumer preferences driving impulse purchases and repeat business ultimately broadening the market's accessibility and penetration worldwide.
Global Craft Spirit Market Restraints
Supply Chain Disruptions & Volatility in Raw Material Costs
Global craft spirit producers face significant challenges from supply chain disruptions and volatile raw material costs. Ingredients like specific grains, botanicals, and barrel wood often originate from distinct regions, making their availability susceptible to geopolitical events, extreme weather, and logistics bottlenecks. A harvest failure in a key spice-producing region, for example, can lead to sharp price increases or even shortages, directly impacting the cost and consistency of a craft spirit’s unique flavor profile. Similarly, delays in global shipping or a shortage of oak barrels can significantly slow down production cycles. These external pressures create unpredictable expenses and production delays, forcing distillers to absorb higher costs, adjust pricing, or compromise on desired ingredients, all of which constrain profitability and market expansion in the vibrant craft spirit sector.
Intensifying Competition & Market Saturation from Large Spirit Conglomerates
The global craft spirit market faces significant headwinds from the intensifying competition and market saturation driven by large spirit conglomerates. These established players wield immense financial power, extensive distribution networks, and sophisticated marketing capabilities. They are increasingly acquiring smaller craft brands, launching their own craft inspired lines, or directly competing with a wide array of products. This aggressive expansion by conglomerates creates a crowded marketplace, making it challenging for independent craft distillers to gain visibility, secure shelf space, and build brand loyalty. Their ability to leverage economies of scale allows them to offer competitive pricing and larger promotional budgets, effectively squeezing out smaller craft producers and limiting their growth potential in an increasingly saturated market.
Global Craft Spirit Market Opportunities
The Niche Palate Opportunity: Crafting Ultra-Premium & Experiential Spirits for Discerning Consumers
The Niche Palate Opportunity involves meticulously crafting ultra premium, experiential spirits specifically for discerning consumers in the burgeoning global craft spirit market. This strategy focuses on moving beyond mass production to offer unique, elevated taste profiles derived from rare ingredients and artisanal processes. Consumers are increasingly seeking authenticity, unparalleled quality, and a profound narrative behind their libations, not just a drink.
This opportunity capitalizes on the growing consumer desire for bespoke experiences and luxurious goods. It entails developing small batch spirits with distinctive character, often highlighting regional heritage or innovative flavor combinations. Brands can engage these discerning individuals through immersive storytelling, exclusive tasting events, and limited edition releases that transform consumption into a memorable journey. Particularly in rapidly expanding markets like Asia Pacific, where wealth accumulation fuels demand for sophisticated and unique luxury items, there is a significant appetite for spirits that promise an elevated, personalized experience. Success hinges on exceptional craftsmanship, innovative product development, and strong brand narratives.
Sustainable Craft & Global Reach: Meeting Demand for Ethically Produced Artisanal Spirits through Digital Channels
The global craft spirit market presents a significant opportunity for ethically produced artisanal spirits to achieve worldwide reach via digital channels. Consumers are increasingly prioritizing sustainability, transparency, and authentic stories behind their purchases. This growing demand creates a fertile ground for craft distillers who commit to ethical sourcing, environmentally friendly practices, and high quality production.
Digital platforms offer an unparalleled pathway for these producers to connect directly with a vast international audience. Through e-commerce, social media, and online storytelling, small scale distillers can overcome traditional distribution barriers. They can effectively communicate their sustainable values, showcase their unique craft, and build strong consumer loyalty. This direct to consumer model efficiently meets the escalating global demand for spirits that are both exceptional in taste and virtuous in origin, transforming niche products into universally desired treasures.
Global Craft Spirit Market Segmentation Analysis
Key Market Segments
By Product Type
- •Gin
- •Whiskey
- •Vodka
- •Rum
- •Tequila
By Packaging Type
- •Glass Bottles
- •Plastic Bottles
- •Cans
- •Kegs
By Alcohol Content
- •Low Alcohol
- •Medium Alcohol
- •High Alcohol
By Distribution Channel
- •Online Retail
- •Supermarkets
- •Specialty Stores
- •Bars and Restaurants
Segment Share By Product Type
Share, By Product Type, 2025 (%)
- Whiskey
- Gin
- Vodka
- Rum
- Tequila
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Why is Whiskey the leading product type in the Global Craft Spirit Market?
Whiskey holds a dominant position due to its rich heritage, diverse flavor profiles, and global appeal, especially among consumers seeking premium and authentic experiences. Craft whiskey producers differentiate themselves through innovative aging techniques, unique grain bills, and regional specificities, appealing to a sophisticated palate. The perception of quality and the storytelling associated with its production further solidify its leading share, attracting a broad base of discerning consumers.
How do various distribution channels influence market penetration for craft spirits?
Distribution channels play a pivotal role in product visibility and consumer access. Bars and restaurants are crucial for introducing new craft spirit brands through mixology and tasting experiences, fostering brand loyalty. Specialty stores cater to enthusiasts seeking unique or limited edition offerings, providing expert advice. Online retail offers convenience and broader geographic reach, enabling smaller craft brands to connect directly with a wider audience, while supermarkets enhance mainstream availability.
What impact does packaging type have on consumer perception and purchasing decisions?
Packaging type significantly influences consumer perception of quality, brand image, and convenience within the craft spirit market. Glass bottles remain the premium standard, conveying elegance and preserving spirit integrity, aligning with the artisanal nature of craft products. While less common, innovative packaging like cans or smaller plastic bottles are emerging for on the go consumption or trial sizes, catering to evolving lifestyle trends and offering new avenues for market expansion.
What Regulatory and Policy Factors Shape the Global Craft Spirit Market
The global craft spirit market navigates a complex regulatory landscape marked by significant regional variance. Definitions of a craft producer, encompassing production volume, ownership, and methods, differ immensely across countries and even within federated states, impacting licensing, tax incentives, and distribution access.
Licensing requirements are stringent and multi-layered, demanding approvals from federal, state, and local authorities for production, wholesale, and retail operations, posing substantial administrative burdens for smaller distillers. Taxation, particularly excise duties, varies widely, with some jurisdictions offering preferential rates for craft producers or those utilizing local ingredients.
Distribution remains a critical hurdle. Many markets, notably parts of the United States, enforce a three-tier system, limiting direct sales to consumers. Conversely, European Union regulations often permit more direct routes. Labeling and marketing face strict oversight regarding alcohol content, origin claims, ingredient transparency, and health warnings. Emerging policies focus on sustainability, waste management, and carbon footprints, particularly in developed regions. International trade is further complicated by tariffs and non-tariff barriers, requiring intricate compliance for global expansion.
What New Technologies are Shaping Global Craft Spirit Market?
The global craft spirit market is rapidly evolving, driven by technological innovations enhancing production and consumer engagement. Precision distillation, often augmented by artificial intelligence, is optimizing flavor profiles and increasing efficiency. Novel botanical extraction methods, including supercritical CO2, are unlocking unique taste experiences and enabling the use of diverse, sustainable ingredients.
Emerging technologies also focus on sustainability. Brands are pioneering eco friendly packaging solutions and implementing water and energy efficient production systems to minimize environmental impact. Blockchain is gaining traction for supply chain transparency, providing verifiable provenance and authenticity for premium offerings. Furthermore, augmented reality AR labels and advanced ecommerce platforms are enhancing consumer interaction and direct to consumer sales, fostering a more personalized and engaging brand experience. These advancements are crucial for continued market growth.
Global Craft Spirit Market Regional Analysis
Global Craft Spirit Market
Trends, by Region
North America Market
Revenue Share, 2025
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Dominant Region
North America · 38.2% share
North America clearly dominates the global craft spirit market, holding a substantial 38.2% market share. This significant lead is driven by several key factors. The region boasts a highly developed consumer base with a strong appreciation for premium, artisan products. A thriving craft cocktail culture and increasing demand for unique, high-quality spirits contribute to this dominance. Furthermore, a supportive regulatory environment in various North American countries has fostered the growth of numerous small to medium sized craft distilleries. Innovation in flavors, ingredients, and production methods also resonates strongly with consumers, further solidifying North America’s leading position in the burgeoning craft spirit industry.
Fastest Growing Region
Asia Pacific · 9.2% CAGR
Asia Pacific is projected to be the fastest growing region in the global craft spirit market, boasting an impressive CAGR of 9.2% from 2026 to 2035. This significant growth is fueled by several converging factors. A burgeoning middle class with increasing disposable incomes is driving demand for premium and unique alcoholic beverages. Consumers across the region are becoming more adventurous, actively seeking out diverse flavor profiles and artisanal products. Furthermore, a rising awareness of craft spirits, coupled with an expanding number of local craft distilleries, is contributing to the market’s rapid expansion. Urbanization and evolving lifestyle preferences are also playing a crucial role, as younger generations embrace experimental and authentic drinking experiences. The region’s dynamic economic landscape and a growing appreciation for quality and heritage within beverages position Asia Pacific for sustained leadership in craft spirit consumption.
Top Countries Overview
The U.S. is a dominant force in the global craft spirit market, both as a producer and consumer. It boasts a thriving independent distillery scene, driving innovation and premiumization. American craft whiskey, gin, and specialized spirits are highly sought after internationally, showcasing diverse regional flavors and contributing significantly to the global market's expansion and growth, particularly in premium and niche segments.
China is a burgeoning force in the global craft spirit market, both as a consumer and producer. Its growing middle class is driving demand for premium, unique spirits. Simultaneously, Chinese distillers are gaining recognition, producing high-quality whiskies, gins, and baijiu innovations that are starting to captivate international palates and expand their global footprint, signaling significant future market impact.
India, with its rich history of unique ingredients and artisanal production, is a rising force in the global craft spirit market. Local gin, whiskey, and experimental spirits, leveraging indigenous botanicals and traditional methods, are gaining international recognition. This vibrant domestic scene is attracting global connoisseurs, positioning India as a significant contributor to the craft spirit landscape, driven by innovation and authentic regional flavors.
Impact of Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors
Geopolitical stability in key spirit producing regions like Europe and North America significantly influences supply chains and raw material costs. Trade agreements and tariffs, particularly between the EU, UK, and USA, dictate market access and pricing for craft spirits. Geopolitical tensions impacting global shipping routes could disrupt glass bottle or botanical sourcing, elevating production costs. Consumer preferences for authentic, locally sourced products also reflect a geopolitical leaning towards supporting national or regional economies. Regulatory changes regarding alcohol advertising or distribution in major markets like China or India present both opportunities and challenges for market entry and expansion.
Macroeconomic factors, including disposable income levels and inflation, directly impact consumer purchasing power for premium craft spirits. A strong global economy generally fuels demand for luxury goods, while economic downturns may shift consumers towards more budget friendly options. Exchange rate fluctuations affect import/export costs and profitability for international brands. Interest rates influence investment in new distilleries and market expansion initiatives. Supply chain disruptions, often driven by macroeconomic shocks like energy price increases, can significantly impact production costs and retail prices, affecting overall market growth and consumer accessibility.
Recent Developments
- March 2025
Diageo announced a strategic partnership with a prominent agave farm collective in Jalisco, Mexico, securing a long-term supply of high-quality agave for their premium tequila brands. This initiative aims to strengthen their position in the rapidly growing premium tequila segment and ensure sustainable sourcing.
- January 2025
WhistlePig unveiled its 'Farm-to-Bottle' rye whiskey series, emphasizing single-estate grains and innovative aging techniques in unique oak varietals. This product launch targets connoisseurs seeking distinctive, terroir-driven craft spirits with a clear provenance.
- February 2025
Campari Group acquired a controlling stake in an award-winning craft gin distillery based in the UK, known for its unique botanical blends. This acquisition expands Campari's premium gin portfolio and allows them to tap into the burgeoning European craft gin market.
- April 2025
Suntory Holdings announced a major investment in its American operations, including the construction of a new craft whiskey distillery focused on experimental grain mash bills and sustainable production practices. This strategic initiative reflects Suntory's commitment to innovation and expansion in the North American craft spirits market.
- May 2025
New Holland Brewing launched a limited-edition series of barrel-aged rums, leveraging their expertise in craft brewing and barrel aging. This product diversification allows them to enter the premium rum category and appeal to consumers looking for unique, small-batch spirits.
Key Players Analysis
The global craft spirit market is driven by key players like WhistlePig and Castle & Key Distillery focusing on premiumization and unique aging techniques. Campari Group, Diageo, and Suntory Holdings leverage their extensive distribution networks and acquisition strategies to capture market share. Smaller, innovative distillers like St George Spirits and New Holland Brewing utilize direct to consumer models and focus on unique flavor profiles and sustainable production. Technology plays a role in distillation process optimization and supply chain management. Market growth is fueled by consumer demand for authenticity, premium products, and diverse spirit categories beyond traditional options. Strategic initiatives include portfolio diversification and expanding global reach.
List of Key Companies:
- WhistlePig
- Campari Group
- Diageo
- Suntory Holdings
- Castle & Key Distillery
- The Sazerac Company
- Constellation Brands
- New Holland Brewing
- St. George Spirits
- Bacardi
- Tito's Handmade Vodka
- BrownForman
- Heaven Hill Distilleries
- Pernod Ricard
- Craft Distillers
Report Scope and Segmentation
| Report Component | Description |
|---|---|
| Market Size (2025) | USD 42.5 Billion |
| Forecast Value (2035) | USD 185.8 Billion |
| CAGR (2026-2035) | 9.6% |
| Base Year | 2025 |
| Historical Period | 2020-2025 |
| Forecast Period | 2026-2035 |
| Segments Covered |
|
| Regional Analysis |
|
Table of Contents:
List of Figures
List of Tables
Table 1: Global Craft Spirit Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Product Type, 2020-2035
Table 2: Global Craft Spirit Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Packaging Type, 2020-2035
Table 3: Global Craft Spirit Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Alcohol Content, 2020-2035
Table 4: Global Craft Spirit Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Distribution Channel, 2020-2035
Table 5: Global Craft Spirit Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Region, 2020-2035
Table 6: North America Craft Spirit Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Product Type, 2020-2035
Table 7: North America Craft Spirit Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Packaging Type, 2020-2035
Table 8: North America Craft Spirit Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Alcohol Content, 2020-2035
Table 9: North America Craft Spirit Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Distribution Channel, 2020-2035
Table 10: North America Craft Spirit Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Country, 2020-2035
Table 11: Europe Craft Spirit Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Product Type, 2020-2035
Table 12: Europe Craft Spirit Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Packaging Type, 2020-2035
Table 13: Europe Craft Spirit Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Alcohol Content, 2020-2035
Table 14: Europe Craft Spirit Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Distribution Channel, 2020-2035
Table 15: Europe Craft Spirit Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Country/ Sub-region, 2020-2035
Table 16: Asia Pacific Craft Spirit Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Product Type, 2020-2035
Table 17: Asia Pacific Craft Spirit Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Packaging Type, 2020-2035
Table 18: Asia Pacific Craft Spirit Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Alcohol Content, 2020-2035
Table 19: Asia Pacific Craft Spirit Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Distribution Channel, 2020-2035
Table 20: Asia Pacific Craft Spirit Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Country/ Sub-region, 2020-2035
Table 21: Latin America Craft Spirit Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Product Type, 2020-2035
Table 22: Latin America Craft Spirit Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Packaging Type, 2020-2035
Table 23: Latin America Craft Spirit Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Alcohol Content, 2020-2035
Table 24: Latin America Craft Spirit Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Distribution Channel, 2020-2035
Table 25: Latin America Craft Spirit Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Country/ Sub-region, 2020-2035
Table 26: Middle East & Africa Craft Spirit Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Product Type, 2020-2035
Table 27: Middle East & Africa Craft Spirit Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Packaging Type, 2020-2035
Table 28: Middle East & Africa Craft Spirit Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Alcohol Content, 2020-2035
Table 29: Middle East & Africa Craft Spirit Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Distribution Channel, 2020-2035
Table 30: Middle East & Africa Craft Spirit Market Revenue (USD billion) Forecast, by Country/ Sub-region, 2020-2035